U.S Midterm Elections and the Markets
On November 6, 2018, U.S. voters will determine whether Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. Up for election are all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats. At stake for investors is the impact the midterm elections could have both on corporate earnings and on the U.S. economy. It’s interesting to note that according to Bloomberg since 1946, the S&P 500 has never declined in the 12 months following midterm elections. Furthermore, the S&P 500 has seen an average fourth-quarter return of 7.9% during midterm election years. That being said, I feel comfortable saying we should expect heightened volatility during and after this election season given the current administration and sitting President.
